Summary and Conclusion

The numerous correlations found to exist in the data are difficult to integrate or understand in tabular form. I have therefore found it useful to present the results in a display which allows a review of all related characteristics at a glance. Figure 13 is this display. Each box contains one of the characteristics of the EM event or the UFO itself, such as a particular color, the presence of sound, or a physiological effect on the witness. A solid line drawn between two characteristics indicates that the two are positively correlated and tend to appear together in EM events. A dotted line indicates the opposite--that the characteristics are negatively correlated and tend not to appear together.

Since the statistical results calculated in the previous section can be displayed in this manner with simple lines on a plane, it makes obvious the fact that the analysis has been only two-dimensional . This means that one cannot follow the lines from one characteristic to another, and then to a third, and conclude that the first and third are necessarily related. However, if the third and first characteristics are also connected by a solid line, that is a different situation, and the relationship among the three characteristics must be studied carefully.

There are thirty-five separate statistically significant correlations that were located. When displayed as in Figure 13, we can observe some patterns begin to emerge. Keep in mind, though, that while the chance of a Type 1 error has been made small due to the rigorous significance level adopted, it is still likely that a few of the correlations in Figure 13 are spurious.

Figure 13. Correlations Located Between Event Characteristics of UFO Reports Involving Vehicle Interference

It is fairly clear after a few minutes study that certain characteristics sort themselves into recognizable groups. The first such group we shall consider is that comprised of the presence of a light beam, control of the vehicle, a physiological effect. and the chasing of the vehicle. Each of these characteristics is positively correlated with the other three. The four characteristics form a strong nexus: the presence of any one characteristic implies that the chance of the other three also occurring is increased.

What can the association of these four characteristics mean? Does it make good sense that they are associated? I believe the answer is yes. A light beam, with presumably higher energies, can affect a human metabolism. The beam might be necessary to take control of a vehicle (though that smacks of science fiction), and of course, a UFO must chase a vehicle to position itself in order to shine the beam onto the vehicle. Similarly, the associations of chasing and control can be understood, as well as chasing and the physiological effect. And if controlling a vehicle requires additional energies, the witness might well be affected, thus completing the nexus. Note that the color blue is correlated with a light beam and a physiological effect, both of which require large amounts of energy — which blue, being in the energetic end of the spectrum, may be signifying.

It does seem that something physical, i.e., real, is occurring. This nexus (which we shall label Nexus I) is best understood and explained if we assume that EM events are physical events, caused by a non-imaginary phenomenon.

Next consider the four characteristics of 1) a metallic-appearing UFO, 2) a UFO that lands, 3) a disc-shaped UFO, and 4) the presence of sound. These also form a distinct nexus (Nexus II) which, with the exception of a connection between disc and landing, is as tightly-bound as Nexus I. When one considers the meaning of Nexus II, however, common sense is not as helpful as before. There is no strong a priori reason to expect, say, a positive correlation between the presence of sound and a disc-like UFO. Merritt has demonstrated the existence of a correlation between these two characteristics in trace cases (1), but while confirming his result for EM cases, we still find no logical connections.

But if we can entertain the possibility that the UFO is, in some cases, a real object, then Nexus II is telling us about disc-shaped, metallic UFOs that emit sound, and about metallic UFOs that land and emit sound. There would seem to be a class of UFOs in EM events that are rather noisy, and are indeed shaped like the classic flying saucer. It is for these reasons that the possible correlation between disc-shaped and metallic UFOs was retained. While the association of these two characteristics is on the borderline of statistical significance, it does, in combination with landing and the presence of sound, fit a pattern which has been intuitively recognized by previous investigators. As such, it is important to retain the association, and because it makes good sense, place it within Nexus II.

Mention should be made here that it is rather unlikely that the witnesses have, in their vivid imaginations, conjured up data which support these results. For example, a graph of reported largest dimension of the UFO versus distance to the UFO showed no correlations or trends. This would not be true if some bias, inherent in the witness, was affecting size and distance estimates. This result and others like it indicate that the witnesses have reported what they saw, heard, or felt, not what they imagined or hallucinated. It is more economical to conclude that we have discovered in Nexus II another real grouping of characteristics, describing a certain type of UFO.

The physical reality of this nexus is further strengthened by additional correlations. Metallic-appearing UFOs are negatively associated with the act of disappearing and the re-starting of a vehicle's engine by itself. These last two characteristics are positively associated, not surprisingly, because both are nonsensical, extraordinary, unphysical events. Things do not disappear, nor machines start by themselves, at least in this world. The fact that metallic-appearing UFOs tend not to occur in conjunction with such events seems to support the presumption of the physical nature of Nexus II.

Disappearance and the landing of a UFO are positively associated, which admittedly somewhat weakens this argument. While problematical, such a connection can be understood in the same fashion as was that between landing and the presence of sound. To distinguish between a landing and a low approach to the ground, the witness will be nearer the phenomenon, on the average, and so has a better chance to hear any sounds emitted. And if a witness is close enough to observe a landing, he or she might also be able to make a better distinction between those UFOs that disappear and those that leave by a more normal means. Thus the connection of landing and a disappearance may simply be an artifact of the reporting process.

As a final confirmation of Nexus II, the metallic-appearing UFO and the action of leaving instantly are positively associated. While difficult to duplicate with present-day technology, the act of accelerating at over 1OG upon departure is not inconsistent with known physical laws. A real phenomenon should most likely obey such laws, not disappear; Nexus II seems to be a description of a real phenomenon or object.

The link between Nexus I and Nexus II is the metallic-appearing UFO, which is associated with both the physiological effect and the chasing of a vehicle. While the reason for a connection between these particular characteristics is obscure, it could be interpreted to imply that both nexuses have, as their basis, some real phenomenon, as yet only vaguely glimpsed.

There is an apparent grouping of the four characteristics of metallic-appearing UFOs, leaving instantly, the chasing of a vehicle, and the color white. This study, though, was only a two-dimensional analysis; consequently, this grouping has no actual significance. The characteristics are not cross correlated as in Nexus I and Nexus II.

The association of the color red with smaller UFOs, the color yellow with those objects that disappear, and the color green with those that emit sound are isolated correlations evincing no obvious significance or relation to the two nexuses (though one could surmise that small UFOs — less energetic? — might preferentially be emitting light in the red end of the visible spectrum). The negative association between large UFOs and the action of chasing a vehicle might be considered to have no meaning, but I believe it does when placed in the following context. My impression from continual review of the data is that, when chasing a vehicle, the phenomenon approaches relatively close to the witness. The fact that larger UFOs tend not to chase vehicles can mean that:

1. Larger UFOs cannot get too close because of physical constraints such as trees along the road, or

2. UFOs are not really very large, and size is misreported by witnesses who see them at a distance.

As mentioned above, a plot of UFO size versus distance showed that point #2 is probably not true; therefore, we conclude that point #1 is the correct explanation. This makes good physical sense, and lends even more support to the reality of the phenomenon, but does not really tell us about anything intrinsic to the phenomenon.

The reason for the negative association between oval-shaped UFOs and the size range under fifteen feet is obscure, but that between metallic UFOs and the fifteen-to-thirty-three foot range has been reported by others, such as Merritt (2) and Vallee (3). Extension of their results to EM cases signifies that this association is intrinsic to the UFO phenomenon. Metallic objects really do tend to fall into this size range.

The two remaining characteristics not discussed are movement in a straight trajectory and UFOs that appear as a light. They are positively associated and tend to occur together in EM events. Lights are negatively associated with the emission of sound and the action of leaving instantly. UFOs that follow a straight trajectory are negatively associated with chasing a vehicle and metallic-appearing UFOs. These negative or repelling associations are all with actions or characteristics that we considered indicators of real, physical events and objects. Since the two characteristics tend not to occur with characteristics in both nexuses, we shall assume that they form their own small grouping, Nexus III. There is also one correlation with UFOs as lights and the size range under fifteen feet, which we shall include in Nexus III.

Just because the characteristics of this nexus tend to avoid the characteristics in Nexuses I and II, both of which were demonstrated to describe non-imaginary phenomena, is no reason to assume that Nexus III is somehow imaginary. First, since all indications are that most witnesses have reported accurately what they have experienced and observed, there is no reason to suppose that reports of silent, small lights moving in a straight trajectory are incorrect. Second, there are several events in the catalogue which adequately characterize this nexus and make clear its physical nature. For example, the November 10, 1972 incident near Heathfield in East Sussex, England, involved a glowing white blob which sped away in a straight line after a motorcycle engine died. The blob was not metallic, nor did it chase the motorcyclist or leave instantaneously. No sound was heard. It is true that the engine was reported to have started by itself, but that only confirms the messy nature of the EM data and the need for statistical methods to sort out existing patterns.

Or consider the Aberdeen, Washington, event on January 3, 1971, when three two-foot fuzzy balls of light drifted in a straight path over a river. They were not metallic, did not chase the affected vehicle or leave quickly, and didn't emit sound. Yet without impugning the witnesses' testimonies, we cannot deny the existence of these fuzzy lights and their effect on the vehicle's engine and electrical system.

As discussed in my earlier paper on EM events (4), that preliminary analysis did not preclude the existence of an unknown natural phenomenon, in appearance akin to ball lightning, but not the same in action or effect. Most EM events occur in clear or partly cloudy, non-precipitating weather, the exact opposite of favorable conditions for the formation of ball lightning (5). These small lights which move in straight trajectories have no precedent in the literature and their existence has not previously been recognized.

Before summarizing what has been discovered, the reader should be reminded that EM events are a special class of UFO events, because the chance that they have occurred as reported is very high. The vehicle acts as a large test instrument of low sensitivity which is affected independently from the witness. Moreover, in numerous cases, the vehicle was affected before the witness ever saw or heard the UFO. To believe that the witness has confabulated the vehicle interference and a UFO is rather farfetched an idea. Likewise, most of the witnesses were unaware that there were such things as EM events before their own experience. There is no good reason to conclude other than that the witnesses have described events which actually happened to them.

We have found two nexuses, one with five characteristics, the other with four, plus a smaller grouping of three characteristics. These three nexuses are thought to correspond to physical events. In particular, Nexus I and Nexus II describe very dramatic scenarios which involve large energies, seemingly deliberate acts of control of the vehicle, and metallic objects emitting sound, often landing on the ground. Quite frankly, these characteristics do not describe some unknown natural phenomenon, since such a phenomenon is neither intelligent nor metallic. Conversely, we discovered in Nexus III a grouping of characteristics which do appear to describe an undiscovered natural phenomenon. Perhaps Persinger's ideas about the piezoelectric effect may hold the key to understanding Nexus III.

Thinking about Nexuses I and II, though, leads to a very different conclusion. Summarized below are points previously discussed in my first paper, all applicable to our deliberations:

1. It is unlikely that a natural phenomenon would suddenly begin occurring with some frequency after 1953, when many vehicles had been on the road for dozens of years before that date.

2. A natural phenomenon would probably not occur preferentially in unpopulated areas.

3. There is no ready explanation for the avoidance of the daylight hours by EM events (refer to "Time of Day of the EM Event" section) .

4. No relationship was demonstrated between severity of EM effect and distance to the UFO, unexpected for a natural phenomena.

5. The presence of humanoids in several events is an obvious difficulty.

6. While a spinning plasma might appear metallic to an individual under certain lighting conditions, it is unlikely that so many witnesses have been unable to determine the true appearance of the phenomenon.

These considerations, in conjunction with the existence of two strongly correlated groups of characteristics, argue powerfully against the hypothesis that all EM events are due to unknown natural phenomena. It cannot be denied that other facts mitigate against the strength of this conclusion, such as the rarity of events involving a diesel engine. But I believe that the evidence opposed to the hypothesis that all EM events are caused by a natural phenomenon (if not hoaxed or hallucinated) is stronger than any in its favor. This is especially true because, in Nexus III, we have already isolated what appears to be a natural phenomenon causing some EM events.

As Roger Bacon has written in the Opus Majus, "Reasoning draws a conclusion and makes us grant the conclusion, but does not make the conclusion certain, nor does it remove doubt . . . unless the mind discovers it by the path of experience." There is no substitute for instrumented observation of UFOs, laboratory analysis of affected vehicles, or simulations of EM events. But given that we do not have such direct experience to draw upon, the most plausible conclusion to be derived from the existence of Nexuses I and II is that some EM events occur in the presence of unknown metallic, noisy, disc-shaped objects, and that others involve objects of high energies which affect vehicles and people.