SSE Talks


Making ARV Work
May 12, 2010 at 4:12 PM EST | Y. DOBYNS


York Dobyns


It is widely held that ARV is an immature predictive technology in that accuracy rates (for binary alternatives) are commonly in the range of 55% to 60%. A specific issue cited is the problem of displacement, in which the percipient gives a clear description of the decoy image. The occurrence of displacement means that the clarity or precision of an image match does not provide a useful guide to the reliability of the prediction. Multiple ARV researchers hold that solving the displacement problem, or at least developing some measure for the confidence that a clear viewing is not displaced, is a prerequisite for practical development. In fact, current accuracy is more than adequate for practical application, as shown by three examples.

1. A reanalysis of an RV experiment published by C.Brown shows that, contrary to the experimenter's stated opinion, had the experiment been used as an ARV application a simple error-correcting algorithm would have allowed the experimenters substantial profits from correctly predicting the target, which was a lottery drawing.

2. Statistics from several different futures trading markets indicate that using ARV at 55% to 60% accuracy to predict the direction of short-term fluctuations will produce substantial long-term profits, although a short-term "gambler's ruin" risk applies to any process with such a small advantage over a pure random walk.

3. The explicit goal of increasing ARV accuracy by applying a filtering process to screen out displacements risks a diminishing-returns effect, depending on how many potential predictions must be discarded in order to attain higher accuracy.


York Dobyns is a physicist (Ph.D. Princeton 1987) who spent 19 years as part of the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research program.




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